#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
The smallest horse in the field here and not starting in a favorable postion. Going to need to show a huge improvement to best this group.
#2 Carpe Diem 8-1
I really liked this classy colt pre-post draw. He did look good in his final prep and could make a little noise today. But definitely has his work cut out.
Suggestion: Use him in exotics
#3 Materiality 12-1
No Races last year hurts this colt. Yes he’s unbeaten, but I’ll be looking elsewhere today.
#4 Tencendur 30-1
One of the eight horses in the field with a Beyer of 100 or more. So he has some speed but has been to inconsistent for me.
#5 Danzing Moon 30/1
One win in five starts. Outclassed here. There are much better options.
#6 Mubtaahij 20-1
The only lasix free horse today. This Irish-bred colt chould make some noise today. I this distance helps this colt a lot. How good is he, well that remains to be seen, but might be the best from Dubai that we’ve seen.
Suggestion: Use him in your exotics.
#8 Dortmund 3-1
He’s my pick to win the derby. What’s not to like? He’s 6 for 6, has been tested, experienced and has a great, effortless, powerful stride. Can’t say enough about him !
Suggestion: My Derby Pick!
#9 Bolo 30-1
Not a bad horse but both of his wins have been on the turf. Don’t think this distance suits him and I don’t see him being a factor.
#10 Firing Line 12-1
Here’s the colt that has challanged Dortmound the most. A great effortless workout on April 25th and has been training well. The only question is distance for this colt.
Suggestion: Feel free to take a shot on him and get him in your exotics. Chances are you might be sorry if you don’t.
#12 International Star 20-1 (SCR.) Now we know why !
Trainer reporting that he missed training on Thursday which worries me. Has shown some weaking in recent races. I’ll pass.
#13 Itsaknockout 30-1
He did not run as well in the Florida Derby, finishing 21 lengths coming in fourth. There are better options out there.
#14 Keen Ice 50-1
He does like Churchill’s surface and has been training well. Nothing stands out here for me. Today’s not his day.
#15 Frosted 15-1
Could be a dangerous today depending on which horse shows up. If you look at his Wood race and the Fountain of Youth you will see what I mean. But he deserves a look in my opinion.
Suggestion: Worth a bet. Use him in your exotics
#16 War Story 50-1
All though I like Joe Talamo, this colt doesn’t have much to get excited about. I’m not considering him to be a factor today.
#17 Mr. Z 50-1
I wish I liked Mr. Z . The name just reminds me of a cool dad. He is the veteran, but with only 1 win in 12 starts I just can’t.
#18 American Pharoah 5-2
So here’s your favorite ! If you don’t know about him by now you never will. Absolutely amazing talent and has everthing to offer. It’s going to great to see him today. But the best horse doesn’t always win the race.
Suggestion: No way you can not like him. If you bet him to win I don’t I blame you but I will try and beat him. He will be in my mix of exotics.
#19 Upstart 15-1
He posted a career-best 108 Beyer in the Florida Derby and finished 2nd. He will need to be at the top of his game today but I do like that he shows the ability to close which I love in a horse. We can get a great price on him too.
Suggestion: Worth a bet. Use him in your exotics.
#20 Far Right 30-1
Hey he’s hit the board in all three races this year. But even with Smith getting the mount I still don’t see much coming from this horse today.
#21 Frammento 50-1
Well he’s in with the Stanford scratch. Way overmatched in this field.
Here’s my thoughts today. Have a great Derby Day Everyone.
Good Luck and Keep well.
Scotty Koz 🏇